Baahubali to remain the Sarkar

Baahubali The Conclusion is set to dominate Indian Box Office yet again this weekend. Film (at time of press) has earned ₹964 cr approx in India and ₹242 cr or $37.6mn in Overseas, giving it a global total of ₹1208cr. This hysterical run is boon to exhibition industry but deadly to any other competition. Last week film annihilated Guardians of The Galaxy 2 and what seems like will be more additions to the casualties done by Baahubali.

The Conclusion dropped 46.75% in last weekend. That 46.75% drop, however, takes into account the early fandom rush, Thursday paid previews and additional shows on Friday morning in 1st weekend, take those out it was 45-46% drop last weekend, suggesting a 44-46% drop for ₹100-105cr 3rd weekend. Again no film has ever collected the same in its 3rd week with the best one, Baahubali The Beginning grossing ₹59 cr in full 3rd week. With this all happening film will cross ₹1000cr in India on 3rd Friday morning and ₹1100 cr by end of weekend.

Speaking about casualties or the plethora of new releases, race for that “nothing but 2nd place” will be between Radha (Telugu), Sarkar 3 and Meri Pyari Bindu. The latter two will be depending on that Saturday and Sunday bump as from advance sales both are non starters. 2 Hollywood films, Alien Covenant and King Arthur will be releasing, out of which Alien is likely to be better one. There is a Punjabi film Lahoriye from team of 2015 Blockbuster Angrej. Despite having a good pre release stuff, film might not perform to expected levels due to ongoing Baahubali mania.

Last weekend saw release of Dangal in China where it has performed phenomenally. Riding on great WOM film outpaced Hollywood biggie Guardians of The Galaxy Vol.2 on Wednesday  which is unheard for any Indian film. There is variance between numbers reported on comScore and local tracker Ent Group, but both suggest a 1st Week in excess of $20mn which is great in any measure. Some in China trade are expecting 2nd weekend higher than 1st, if that happens film is on way to cross ₹1000cr Globally and might might breach that $100mn internationally.

Forecast

  • Baahubali 2 : ₹101cr
  • Radha : ₹10cr
  • Sarkar 3 : ₹9.5cr
  • Meri Pyari Bindu : ₹8cr
  • Aliens Covenant : ₹6.5cr

 

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Note : All the figures in above story are in terms of gross.