The Conclusion : A Box Office Baahubali

The drawn-out battle between Mahendra Baahubali and Bhallaladeva comes to an end with the launch of Baahubali – The Conclusion. Finally, the suspense as to “WKKB” going to unfold this weekend. It’s Conclusion to what Magic Man S.S. Rajamouli started with “The Beginning”. That film in 2015 changed Indian box office breaking the barriers between Bombay & Southern industries, laying foundation for a Pan India market and now “The Conclusion” comes to build a “Tower of Records” on that foundation

The Conclusion is breaking records before a single frame is exhibited. It rake in a hefty ₹500 cr Approx in name of Pre Release Business from Domestic & Overseas buyers for both Theatrical and Non Theatrical rights. Film is estimated to open in 4800 Theatres (around 6700 Screens) in India (Including 10 IMAX screens) & 1200 Theatres (in excess of 2500 screens) internationally which is by far the Biggest release for Indian film by margin. Advance sales are over the roof breaking weekend record for Indian films with 1st day advance sales at various stations.

Records such as these offer a glimpse at what’s to come, as we put under the microscope a release that’s nearly impossible to predict. You will run short of fingers to count the number of records The Conclusion is looking to break. Here are the few of them which will be down by Sunday ends.

  • Highest Opening Day Gross : Prem Ratan Dhan Payo (₹54.5cr)
  • Highest Single Day, Sunday Gross : Dangal (₹59 cr)
  • Highest Saturday Gross : Bajrangi Bhaijaan (₹49.5cr)
  • Largest Weekend Gross (Domestic) : Dangal (₹149 cr)
  • Largest Weekend Gross (Overseas) : Dhoom 3 ($10.4mn)
  • Largest Weekend Gross (Worldwide) : Sultan (₹208cr)

Question isn’t that “Will” it break records but “How Big” it will create. So “How Big” could be The Conclusion. For starters, no film has grossed ₹75 cr in Single Day in India (for that matter even ₹60cr). With no past film as yardstick, it become really difficult to put a range to look for. All what we can do is go into Individual markets for putting that range.

Starting with Telugu states, currently “The Beginning” holds the Opening title with gross of ₹24.5cr which was more than double of the Opening record back then. Here “The Conclusion” is expected to double the current record holder, thanks to Thursday Premiere (in place of benefit shows in Nizam which is followed by Andhra Pradesh), enhanced number of shows and Premium ticket pricing. ₹45cr Day 1 gross is granted while for high end speculation ₹50cr is appropriate. Moving North, film is expected to topple all Non Holiday debut including Dhoom 3’s ₹37 cr Gross. ₹41-46cr is what look achievable at moment. In Tamilnadu it is targeting Highest Non Festive & Non Rajini day 1 in excess of ₹11cr. As for Karnataka & Kerala an All time record opening is on track which will contribute in excess of ₹15.

All this give us a range of ₹112-130 cr for Opening day in India. For  a second let’s assume that it settle at lower limit, it is still going to beat previous Opening record by around ₹60cr plus (110% up from PRDP)

Internationally it’s even more tough to picturise the scene than in India. Film is releasing in record prints including around 100 prints in IMAX format. But said that, with extraordinary pre sale outselling Hollywood tentpole Fate of The Furious in US, Gulf, Australia and so on history is bound to created.  

We will be looking at Opening results on Saturday morning when Numbers for film will come. Till then join us at Twitter and Facebook along with other Baahubali fans and share your views.

Our Forecast

  • Opening Day : ₹121 cr
  • Opening Weekend (India) : ₹292cr
  • Opening Weekend (Overseas) : $22mn
  • Opening Weekend (Worldwide) : ₹434cr